Latest research forecasts Australian capital city home prices could rise 6-10% in 2026
Latest research forecasts Australian capital city home prices could rise 6-10% in 2026
SQM Research forecasts Australian capital city home prices will rise 6-10% next year, with every capital city tipped to grow under all economic scenarios with Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin all expected to deliver double-digit gains, reflecting severe supply shortages and strong economic momentum.
SQM head Louis Christopher’s “Boom and Bust” report for 2026 makes clear that the current Australian housing cycle still has substantial upside.
One of Australia’s most recognised property analysts and commentators has released his housing forecasts for 2026, saying he expects capital city home prices to rise between 6% and 10% next year.
The findings are the “base case” from Louis Christopher, the Founder and Managing Director of SQM Research, and are contained in his latest annual “Boom and Bust” report.
However, that weighted capital city average of 6-10% masks wide variations in expected growth, with Sydney and Canberra property prices tipped to see as little as a 3% uplift, while values in Perth and Darwin could soar by up to 16% and Brisbane by 15%.
Under Mr Christopher’s most optimistic scenario, Perth could see runaway growth of 17-21%, while Brisbane’s dwelling prices will charge ahead by 13-18%.
SQM believes this ranges from a “sluggish” Australian economy - the company’s most likely or “base case” - through to a “robust economic rebound”.
Nevertheless, in all scenarios, SQM believes Australian capital city housing prices will continue to grow.
“Our scenarios highlight the market's sensitivity to these factors, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide poised for double-digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum," Louis Christopher says.
The “base case” would see Perth and Darwin lead the charge next year, with both cities recording price growth in the vicinity of 12-16%.
Brisbane and Adelaide would not be far behind, predicted to see gains of 10-15% and 10-14% respectively.
Source: SQM Research
